在线办公区
作者在线投稿 专家在线审稿 专家在线办公
HOME / ARTICEL
Fertility Age Patterns in China and Global Comparisons from a Life Cycle Perspective

He Yuchen; Yu Jia |
Year.Issue:Page: 2025.3:35-50 | Chinese Library Classification Number:
Keywords:
Fertility Age Pattern Life Cycle Postponement and Recuperation Global Comparison
ABSTRACT

 China's total fertility rate(TFR) has experienced a sharp decline in recent years. To better understand this fluctuation, this study analyzes data from China's censuses and mini-censuses and introduces a life cycle perspective to describe shifts in age patterns and urban-rural disparities in China's fertility, while also conducting an international comparison. The cumulative fertility rate of women aged 20-29 declined from 1.73 in 1990 to 1.04 in 2010 and further to 0.77 in 2020. From a life cycle perspective, the fertility level of the corresponding cohorts upon reaching higher reproductive ages (30-39) increased modestly from 0.22 in 2000 to 0.46 in 2020, indicating that the recuperation effect was only about 30% of the postponement effect. This limited recovery of postponed births partially explains the ongoing decline in China's fertility rate. Compared with other countries experiencing the second demographic transition, fertility postponement started later in China, but the shift has been more pronounced and rapid. China has not yet witnessed a considerable increase in fertility recuperation, which has been a key factor in fertility rebounds in countries like France and Sweden. Fertility-enhancing policies should not only focus on slowing fertility postponement in early adulthood but also aim to increase fertility recuperation in later adulthood.