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Emerging Ring Structure of Population Distribution in Metropolitan Areas:Analyzing China's Model from an International Comparative Perspective

Yin Deting;Ji Fangzhou;Liang Chen |
Year.Issue:Page: 2025.5:3-18 | Chinese Library Classification Number:
Keywords:
Metropolitan Area Population Distribution Spatial Ring Structure Population Projection
ABSTRACT

Scientifically evaluating and effectively utilizing the Population distribution characteristics and evolution trends of metropolitan areas is a crucial prerequisite for exploring the path of integrated development within Chinese metropolitan areas. This paper, using six international metropolitan areas as benchmarks, conducts an in-depth investigation into the distribution patterns and evolutionary mechanisms of population rings in eight major Chinese metropolitan areas based on 20 years of data. The study reveals that, compared to international metropolitan areas, China's metropolitan areas exhibit four distinct features in population distribution: the demographic density distribution within rings has contracted from a "bell-shaped" to a "cone-shaped" pattern; the dynamic evolution of population rings has shifted from spreading inward to expanding outward, the population centers within rings have tended to stabilize, and the pattern of population agglomeration within rings has transitioned from a single-core "point-like" form to a multi-core "cluster-like" structure. Based on time-series analysis of population ring distribution data in Chinese metropolitan areas, future population distribution is projected to mainly manifest three types and trends: "centrifugal diffusion", "stable development", and "single-core agglomeration." Building on typological analysis, the paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions, including exploring government-guided classified planning, optimizing the allocation of industrial and public service resources, and improving the integrated urban-rural development mechanism.